By Vincent J. Truglia
Given that Trump is the likely GOP Presidential candidate and given that he remains highly critical of NATO as it exists today, I wish to point out there are several paths he could follow. Developments in Ukraine over the last two years make it clear that the US should review the existing NATO Treaty and either have it amended or the US should withdraw.
This may be shocking to some, but I doubt most Americans realize how risky the treaty has become for the United States. The rapid accession of relatively small Eastern and Central European countries has caused a massive shift in requirements to come to the rescue of countries which do not represent US vital national interests.
The core risk lies within Article 5 of the treaty. According to Article 5, if any NATO country is attacked, it would be considered an attack on all NATO countries. All other NATO countries would be expected to come to the aid of that country.
Article 5
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
This was all well and good when the Western Alliance was faced with a Communist threat centered in Eastern Europe. Before the recent ramping up of NATO membership, NATO members protected by Article 5 represented vital US interests.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the Communist threat in Europe disappeared. Counterintuitively, despite the risk of communism having declined precipitously, what then happened is that a number of smaller European countries joined NATO, including Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, among others, and most dangerously, the three Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. None of these countries represent a vital national interest to the US. I doubt most Americans realize that if there is a Russian move into Estonia or Latvia, that the US might be at war with a nuclear-armed Russia.
The risks, especially posed by Estonian and Latvian membership in NATO are that both countries have large Russian-speaking minorities, which are, by most standards, treated as second-class citizens. Given developments in the Ukraine, it would not be surprising if Russia demands better treatment of Russian speaking minorities in both those countries. Lithuania doesn’t have a large Russian speaking minority.
Frankly, although I would hope that instead of Russian military force being used, that Estonia and Latvia would better respect their Russian-speaking minorities. If they don’t, and Russia intervenes in either one, I would certainly oppose the use of force by the US to prevent such intervention.
There is one Eastern European country, Poland, which I believe is of vital interest to the US because of World War II’s redrawing of boundaries in Eastern and Central Europe. Poland got shifted so far westward that now the Polish border is a mere 60 miles or about 100 kilometers from Berlin. Any attack on Poland should and would require a military response.
How could this problem be resolved? The US could invoke Article 12 of the treaty, which allows for a review of the treaty. The US could then demand that it will only come to the defense of certain countries, not necessarily all of them.
Article 12
After the Treaty has been in force for ten years, or at any time thereafter, the Parties shall, if any of them so requests, consult together for the purpose of reviewing the Treaty, having regard for the factors then affecting peace and security in the North Atlantic area, including the development of universal as well as regional arrangements under the Charter of the United Nations for the maintenance of international peace and security.
If other NATO members do not agree to such a review, then the US could invoke Article 13, which allows any country to leave the alliance with one year’s notice.
I would argue that instead of dismantling NATO, the original core NATO states would prefer an amendment to the treaty rather than a US departure from the alliance. I don’t want to put our military at risk to protect Estonia and Latvia, especially since their treatment of their Russian-speaking minority is poor.
If asked, how many Americans would want to go to war if Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, or Slovakia are attacked? Most Americans wouldn’t even know where they are on a map.
As always, Clear and Candid.