By Vincent J. Truglia
Should the US be willing to allow Canada to become the 51st State? The answer is an unambiguous NO!
For the sake of transparency, I am US born and bred. However, my connection to Canada is strong. Not only did I spend four years of graduate school at Montreal’s McGill University, but as a country risk economist I was the lead analyst for Canada’s Moody’s bond rating in the early 1990s during the height of Canada’s financial crisis.
I could go on and on about the chaos that emerged as a result of the Canadian rating being lowered to Aa1 from Aaa in June 1994, followed by a further downgrade to Aa2 in April 1995. However, that’s not the purpose of this short comment.
Is Canada suitable for statehood?
I would argue it would completely upset US political dynamics. Although the argument is made by some that since the size of Canada’s population is similar to California, population size shouldn’t be a problem. What they fail to recognize is how varied Canadian provinces and territories are. It would make the new state ungovernable because provincial governments would be turned into the equivalent of counties or some other designation. Attempting to impose all the constitutional controls over state governments imposed by the Supreme Court would require a restructuring of provincial governments to a point where they would be largely unrecognizable. Also, what would happen to all Canada’s outstanding Federal and Provincial debt?
Alberta and Saskatchewan.
If Canada is to be absorbed into the US, the only way would be if individual provinces were allowed to join. The only two provinces, which I see as potential states are Alberta and Saskatchewan. Both are heavily dominated by natural resource wealth, maintaining more politically center-right views than the other provinces and therefore are more compatible with the US political system. Culturally, both provinces have a close affinity with American culture. A problem posed by adding these two provinces as states would be it would change the balance in the Senate, with each new state receiving two senators, never mind that Congressional districts would need to be adjusted to account for Alberta’s 2025 population of 5.96 million and Saskatchewan’s 1.25 million. Nonetheless, these latter concerns are easily addressed.
The other provinces are just too alien given their histories and political viewpoints to fit into the American system.
BC
British Columbia is far too left-leaning for red states to support two senators for that province.
Ontario
Ontario is too big and too politically mature for it to smoothly function in the US system. First, Ontario (population 16.18 million) would go from being the dominant political force in the country to being one of many states, a number of which have larger populations. Years of multiculturalism indoctrination would make the province a likely belligerent, uncooperative state. Nonetheless, the economic benefit to Ontarians of being Americans would be enormous.
The Maritimes
The Maritime provinces would not be particularly beneficial to the US if they joined as individual states. Prince Edward Island’s population would not even meet the minimum population required to be a state. Given that these provinces are the poorest, they would likely represent a drain on US federal resources. It is obvious that allowing those provinces to have two senators each would be a non-starter. One part of the Atlantic provinces, which the US might consider annexing, is Labrador, presently part of the province of Newfoundland and Labrador. It’s long coastline and proximity to Greenland would clearly be tempting.
Quebec
By far, the biggest obstacle for Canadian statehood would be Quebec. Merging Quebec with the US political system would not work. The bilingual nature of Quebec makes any attempt at unification a non-starter. To accommodate Quebec, adding the French language as an official language in the US would meet enormous resistance across the US. Also, Quebec politics is more closely aligned with European social democracy. Quebec’s use of civil law, however, would not be a big problem. Louisiana has easily dealt with that over time.
If Alberta and Saskatchewan were to become states, the rest of Canada’s political system would fall apart. The US would then need to consider a complete free-trade agreement with Canada, where the US-Canada border would disappear except for provincial governance in the remaining provinces.
Canadian Territories: Annexed
I expect that if Alberta becomes a state, the US will simply annex the Northwest Territories and the Yukon. That would add more Arctic Ocean coastline to the US. The annexation might even include Nunavut, the enormous territory bordering large sections of the Arctic Ocean. These territories would represent vitally important military assets.
As always, Clear and Candid.